AOL has an interesting poll-related Election graphic showing how each state would 'go' this November. The poll and graphic are reset the first of each month so that past trends do not affect current sentiments (and maybe poll-stuffing). See AOL Elections 2004: Straw Poll.
Poll-stuffing? Yeah.. don't hold me to that. I just made the word up (as far as I know). I do suspect, however, that every single state wouldn't truly go for Bush - or even be leaning that way as the graphic suggests. Even given a post-convention "bounce," I doubt that Washington D.C. would be the only corner of the Electoral College granting their 3 votes to Kerry.
I'm more inclined to believe (as I have predicted before) that Kerry will win 12 states with the decision not being close enough the challenger to legitimately contest the decision in every court in the land.
What's your prediction? How many states & electoral votes are going to which candidate?
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